While this year initially seemed like one of the most wide open ever, the predictability is beginning to come into place, only a couple months later than usual. At least four different films have been legitimate front-runners over the past several months, which is absolutely unheard of. However, current momentum seems to be shifting towards only one of them, and I'm not too sure how to feel about it...
But first, I'm going to predict who/what will win, as well as who/what I believe should win, in all 24 categories! The 87th Academy Awards will air this Sunday, February 28th, on ABC.
(Click here to see all of the 2016 Oscar Nominations)
Best Picture
Nominees:
- The Big Short
- Bridge of Spies
- Brooklyn
- Mad Max: Fury Road
- The Martian
- The Revenant
- Room
- Spotlight
The National Board of Review chose Mad Max: Fury Road. The Golden Globes chose The Revenant (drama) and The Martian (comedy/musical...?). The Critic's Choice was Spotlight. The Producers Guild chose The Big Short. And then the Director's Guild and BAFTAs decided to give all the momentum right on back to The Revenant... The biggest and most accurate predictors of what will eventually win Best Picture at the Oscars chose five different films this year. That is unusual. If you would have asked me two weeks ago which film would take this final (and biggest) award, I would have hands-down said The Big Short. The PGA is considered the best predictor, plus the (extremely white, elderly, and out-of-touch) Academy will assume a political film directed by Adam McKay, a former head writer at SNL who's most famous for often collaborating with Will Ferrell, will somehow be an "edgy" choice. But, it seems pretty likely now that The Revenant will take home the prize. It's won at the last two big award shows (DGA and BAFTAs). Even though Alejandro González Iñárritu's Birdman won last year, The Revenant has the most nominations and is currently over-performing at the box office, and we all know how much Hollywood loves $$$. I actually liked The Revenant, more than almost all of the other nominees, but it's no Mad Max: Fury Road. Not even close.
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Mad Max: Fury Road is the only legit incredible film nominated this year. It's an absolute action masterpiece and is easily the best big-budget studio action film in many, many years... possibly of all-time. The only thing keeping this from being the clear front-runner is that it was released 10 months ago, and the Academy has an infamously short memory. The flame-throwing guitar man and in-your-face score might also be too much for some Academy members, but they're wrong... The Revenant is the more recent spectacle film, so it'll take the win. Honestly, as long as The Martian or Brooklyn don't win, I'll survive.
Best Director
Nominees:
- Adam McKay, The Big Short
- George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
- Alejandro G. Iñárritu, The Revenant
- Lenny Abrahamson, Room
- Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
Will Win: Alejandro G. Iñárritu
He won Best Director at the Director's Guild Awards for the second year in a row. He's simply at the peak of his career right now, so I have to go with him to win. A few months ago, all of the trades and blogs were very busy dishing out the juicy gossip of how Iñárritu was causing so many problems on set (production took much longer than expected and the budget skyrocketed) and how he was pissing off a lot of his crew members (many were fired or just flat out quit)... but no one really cares about that anymore, I guess... The new spin is that the film displays a bright light on the struggles of indigenous peoples, and while I applaud the film for actually hiring aboriginal actors, the film never escapes the colonial gaze. Anyone who has seen the movie knows very much that this is 1000% the "Leo DiCaprio show" and essentially the "white-savior" movie the Academy has been eating up for decades... But, nonetheless, Iñárritu has found himself the front-runner once again, and it's certainly not a terrible choice. The Revenant has a huge scale and features some breathtaking sequences.
He should win. He deserves to win. Just give it to him... Please?!!! He does have a good relationship with the Academy, with Babe being an Oscar-contender during the 90s and Happy Feet winning Best Animated Feature in 2007. Yes, the man who directed the brain-melting Mad Mad: Fury Road also directed Babe and Happy Feet (and both of their sequels)!! I still think he has an outside chance, and if he won, I'll believe in God again.
Best Actor
Nominees:
- Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
- Matt Damon, The Martian
- Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
- Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
- Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
It's his year, and I'm sure he's happy about it, and I'm happy about it because now fake film-fans can finally stop screaming "WHERE'S LEO'S OSCAR?!?!?!?!" every damn year! But, yeah, he had to do some crazy (and gross) shit in this movie and he survived one hell of a terrible production, so I say why not? Give it to him. Is this his most "defining" performance? Probably not. But, it definitely will be the one to give him his first Academy Award. If he doesn't win, it would be the shock of the night.
Should Win: Ummmm.... no one?
I mean all of these performances are fine. Some are even good. But all of these choices are so unbelievable boring. Abraham Attah in Beasts of No Nation. Christopher Abbott in James White. Tom Courtenay in 45 Years. Samuel L. Jackson in The Hateful Eight. John Cusack in Love & Mercy. These are just five lead performances that are all more interesting and (in many cases) more relevant than the people actually nominated. I guess if I had to choose, I would go with Michael Fassbender just because he had to memorize so many lines for Steve Jobs and because he's my personal favorite actor in the group.
Best Actress
Nominees:
- Cate Blanchett, Carol
- Brie Larson, Room
- Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
- Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
- Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
She's been the frontrunner ever since Room premiered. She has been working forever (she starred in a Disney Channel original movie with 7th Heaven's Beverley Mitchell!!!!) and has finally become an "IT-girl" in Hollywood. I would have loved if she were recognized for the brilliant Short Term 12 instead (currently on Netflix!), but she's great in Room and just seems really nice, so I'm very cool with this.
Should Win: Cate Blanchett
Carol ever-so-gently murdered me, and Cate Blanchett is a huge reason for that peaceful death. So what if she's already won twice before?! She's Cate Blanchett! She deserves it ALWAYS! (I also really loved Charlotte Rampling's performance, but she said some really stupid stuff about the #OscarsSoWhite boycott, so I have a lot of difficulties rooting for her at this time.)
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees:
- Christian Bale, The Big Short
- Tom Hardy, The Revenant
- Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
- Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
- Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Like the Best Actor field, this category is also super boring. The only somewhat flashy or interesting nominee is Stallone, so he has to be the winner, right? He won the Golden Globe, so it makes the most sense (Idris Elba, who isn't even nominated here (?), won the SAG award, the best predictor of Oscar acting categories... though, to be fair, Creed didn't screen for SAG members in time for consideration). Stallone almost totally ruined everything when he forgot to thank Ryan Coogler, his writer/director who literally had to persuade/beg him to reprise his Rocky role, and Michael B. Jordan during his Golden Globes speech. But people got over it quickly and Stallone again seems like the obvious choice, my personal favorite as well. All of the other performances are fine, but each actor has done better work in the recent past, so a win here for any of them would seem weird.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees:
- Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
- Rooney Mara, Carol
- Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
- Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
- Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
She's probably had the best year out of anyone currently working in the business. Ex Machina was a critical hit (and a cult hit amongst audiences). She will star in three promising films later this year, including the highly anticipated Jason Bourne. And now she (most likely) will win an Oscar (and for a leading role in the supporting category too)!! She seems to have come out of nowhere, and the Academy loves feeling like they've "discovered" someone, even though Vikander has shown up in some pretty big films over the past few years. Don't totally count out Kate Winslet, but definitely bet on Vikander.
Should Win: Rooney Mara
Please read the "Cate Blanchett" section above and apply those same exactly feelings to Rooney Mara. Like Vikander, Mara really should have been nominated in the Best Actress category (she has more screen time in Carol than Cate Blanchett does...), but either way, this performance is amazing! She truly is so great here and a couple of months ago, she was actually the obvious choice to win! But, the Academy didn't love Carol as much as any decently sane person did, so things unfortunately changed. I guess she'll just have to settle with her award from Cannes...
Best Original Screenplay
- Will Win: Spotlight, Josh Singer and Tom McCarthy
- Should Win: Inside Out, Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve, Josh Cooley, and Ronnie Del Carmen
Best Adapted Screenplay
- Will Win: The Big Short, Charles Randolph and Adam McKay
- Should Win: Carol, Phyllis Nagy
Best Animated Feature
- Will Win: Inside Out
- Should Win: Anomalisa
Best Foreign Language Film
- Will Win: Son of Saul
- Should Win: Mustang
Best Documentary Feature
- Will Win: Amy
- Should Win: The Look of Silence
Best Cinematography
- Will Win: Emmanuel Lubezki, The Revenant
- Should Win: John Seale, Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Film Editing
- Will Win AND Should Win: Margaret Sixel, Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Production Design
- Will Win AND Should Win: Colin Gibson (production design) and Lisa Thompson (set decoration), Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Costume Design
- Will Win: Sandy Powell, Cinderella
- Should Win: Jenny Beavan, Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Original Score
- Will Win: John Williams, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
- Should Win: Ennio Morricone, The Hateful Eight
Best Original Song
- Will Win: Diane Warren and Lady Gaga, "Til It Happens to You" (The Hunting Ground)
- Should Win: I genuinely do not care...
Best Visual Effects
- Will Win AND Should Win: Andrew Jackson, Tom Wood, Dan Oliver, and Andy Williams, Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
- Will Win AND Should Win: Lesley Vanderwalt, Elka Wardega, and Damian Martin, Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Sound Mixing
- Will Win: Chris Jenkins, Gregg Rudloff, Ben Osmo, Mad Max: Fury Road
- Should Win: Andy Nelson, Christopher Scarabosio, Stuart Wilson, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Best Sound Editing
- Will Win: Mark A. Mangini and David White, Mad Max: Fury Road
- Should Win: Matthew Wood and David Acord, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Best Documentary Short
- Will Win: Body Team 12 (because it's about ebola.)
Best Live Action Short Film
- Will Win: Ave Maria (because it's about religion.)
Best Animated Short Film
- Will Win: World of Tomorrow (This is probably one of the greatest short films I've ever seen, and I think it has a shot. AND IT'S ON NETFLIX!)
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